CPF stocks: Prices,returns and volatility

We identify a unique phenomenon in the Central Provident Fund (CPF) stocks where stock prices increase in the absence of fundamental changes in firm value. CPF stocks are stocks endorsed by the Central Provident Fund Board in Singapore as approved investment for its members. CPF stocks offer significant price appreciation and value preservation as well as abnormal returns in the bull market before the October 1987 market crash. We find evidence of noise trading in bull markets and price pressure effects that persist through bearish market conditions.The authors are from the Department of Finance and Banking, National University of Singapore.     

Auditors' behaviour in an audit conflict situation: A research note on the role of locus of control and ethical reasoning

This study investigates the interaction effects of locus of control, a personality variable, and ethical reasoning on the behaviour of auditors in an audit conflict situation. Eighty experienced auditors from a sample of Big Six and Non-Big Six CPA firms in Hong Kong were provided with a case study involving an audit conflict situation and were asked to state the extent to which they would accede to the client's request. Subjects were also administered Rotter's Locus of Control Scale and the Denning Issues Test (DIT) to measure ethical reasoning. Analyses of the data using multiple regression found that ethical reasoning moderated the relationship between locus of control and the auditors' responses to accede to client's request in an audit conflict situation. An implication of these results is that the explicit recognition of both locus of control and ethical reasoning provides a better explanation for differences in auditors' ethical decision making.     

Maintaining competitiveness of aviation hub: Empirical evidence of visitors to China via Hong Kong by air transport

Prior studies have not extensively researched and explored the key determinants (aviation and tourism attributes) that could affect Hong Kong’s competitiveness as a transit hub for international visitors using Hong Kong as a stopover to Chinese cities when travelling by air. This study adds to that knowledge to empirically investigate Hong Kong’s eight major tourist source markets (Germany, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK, and the US), and also provides an insight to policy-makers in Hong Kong to help them understand the factors that influence Hong Kong’s aviation hub competitiveness and tourism development. The findings of the study suggest that increased air transport capacity from foreign countries and Hong Kong to China, trade volumes between China and its trading partners, air transport costs, and the global financial crisis are the key factors affecting the number of visitors to China by air passing through Hong Kong as their preferred stopover. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

An Analysis of Hong Kong Auditors' Perceptions of the Importance of Selected Red Flag Factors in Risk Assessment

This study examined auditors' perceptions of the relative level of risk of fraud and material irregularities associated with the presence of six red flag factors and also evaluated the quality of auditors' judgements. The study was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, subjects were asked to rank the importance of 15 factors that proxy the existence of material misstatements. Based on the responses to this questionnaire, 6 of the most important factors were identified and included in the second stage, a lens model experiment. In the lens model experiment, 30 experienced auditors from a cross-section of Big 6 firms were used as subjects in a repeated-measures ANOVA design. Results showed that misstatements in prior audits and indicators of going-concern problems were perceived to be the most significant factors in alerting auditors to the risk of fraud and material irregularities. In making these judgements, auditors demonstrated a relatively high level of consensus and consistency. However, the two most important factors in the lens model experiment are not the same as the results of the first survey suggesting that the first group of respondents, faced with a simple questionnaire, used heuristics in their decision making. The results have implications for audit practice.     

Discretionary-accruals models and audit qualifications

The primary goal of this study is to evaluate the ability of the Cross-sectional Jones Model and the Cross-sectional Modified Jones Model to detect earnings management vis-à-vis their time-series counterparts by examining the association between discretionary accruals and audit qualifications. These two cross-sectional models have not been formally evaluated by prior research, and their use may offer certain advantages to investors and researchers over their time-series counterparts. A sample of 173 distinct firms with qualified audit reports and a matched-pair control sample with clean audit reports are used. Only the two cross-sectional models are consistently able to detect earnings management. One limitation of this study is that its findings merely indicate the superiority of the cross-sectional models vis-à-vis their time-series counterparts in an audit qualification setting, not validate either the former or the latter.     

Insider Trading, Earnings Management and Corporate Governance: Empirical Evidence Based on Hong Kong Firms

We document positive association between earnings management and insider selling after the fiscal year‐end for Hong Kong firms. This positive association is especially evident before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Our findings suggest that Hong Kong executives manage reported earnings to maximize their private benefits from insider selling. Additionally, we find that a higher proportion of independent directors (INED) on corporate boards moderate the positive association between insider selling and earnings management. Stricter monitoring of earnings management by INED is especially evident when no member of the family with majority ownership is present on corporate boards as a director. This suggests that the presence of family members with majority ownership on corporate boards significantly reduces INED's monitoring effectiveness. Our findings suggest that strict regulations are needed to control insider trading, and independence of corporate boards is important for monitoring of earnings management associated with insider trading. Furthermore, appointment of family members with majority shareholdings should be avoided to enhance independence and to monitor effectiveness of corporate boards.     

Conditional heteroscedasticity of exchange rates: further results based on the fractionally integrated approach

A recent article (Tse, 1998 ) published in this journal analysed the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen–dollar exchange rate based on the fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH model. In this paper, we present replication results using Tse's ( 1998 ) yen–dollar series. We also examine the robustness of Tse's ( 1998 ) findings across different currencies, sample periods and non‐nested GARCH‐type models. Unlike Tse ( 1998 ), we find some evidence of asymmetric conditional volatility for daily returns of currencies measured against the dollar or the yen. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FORCES SHAPING CHINA'S INTERPROVINCIAL INEQUALITY

This paper explores the forces that shaped China's interprovincial inequality in the last five decades of Communist rule. In so far as the change in interprovincial inequality is the result of differential growth in provincial GDP per capita and provincial economic growth, it may be decomposed into contributions by total factor productivity (TFP) and other factor inputs. A new method is introduced to make this decomposition. Care is exercised in taking into account problems of Chinese official data when implementing the decomposition analysis. The findings suggest that TFP and factor inputs exerted different and sometimes opposing effects on interprovincial inequality in the Maoist and reform era. The increase in inequality from the mid 1960s to the mid 1970s is due to the contribution of TFP overwhelming that of physical capital. The opposite is true for the 1980s. The increase in the 1990s is mainly driven by the skewed distribution of investments in favor of the richer coastal provinces reinforced by the increasing contribution of TFP.     

Oil,Growth, and Health: What Does the Cross‐Country Evidence Really Show?*

We show that previous results from the body of literature on the resource curse have primarily been driven by the collapse in oil prices during the mid‐1980s. By exploiting cross‐country variations in the size of initial oil endowments and the timing of oil discoveries, we find that there is a stable positive relationship between oil abundance and long‐run economic growth. Using dynamic panel data methods, we also find that there is no evidence that higher oil rents hinder growth. However, to focus on material gain means that the welfare gain from oil is understated, because oil‐rich countries benefit more by the reduction in infant mortality and the gain in longevity. Interestingly, such oil‐led health improvements are more pronounced in non‐democratic countries, where initial heath conditions were poor and oil wealth is concentrated among the ruling elites.